Liar, Liar! Pants on Fire.

The danger of peddling "alternative facts"

“Alternative facts” was a brilliant 2017 invention of Kelly Ann Conway to refer to the (often dubious) “interpretation” of the truth by the Trump administration. Twisting reality through whatever colored glasses is one of the few constants of Donald Trump’s political career. However, politicians are not the only ones adept at creating a parallel reality; the Champenois could give many a conspiracy theorist a run for their money when it comes to gaslighting.

Let me explain. In the fourteen years that I have lived here, I have seen a plethora of – often contradictory - fact “interpretations’, on just about every topic, though sustainability probably takes first place. Sustainability is based on three pillars: economic, ecological and social responsibility, and each of these has regularly been portrayed from a very different angle, but always to shine a favorable light on the appellation. Taking a clue from Ms Conway, alternative sustainability champagne facts have bloomed in recent years, and they will likely hurt the small to average player in Champagne, in the same way the MAGA base has begun to feel the sting of Trump’s alternative reality.

But before I give a pillar-by-pillar twisted-reality overview, I would like to quote John Oliver and stress that my criticism is not aimed at debasing the Champenois institutions; instead, it comes from a place of genuine concern and love. It sometimes is easier to see the forest for the trees from a place of detachment. I may live in Champagne and write on champagne, but I am not employed by the champagne microcosm. In other words, I am not directly impacted by the economic heartbeat of the appellation, even though I prefer a healthy and thriving appellation to a faltering one. But ignoring a storm, does not make it go away. Instead, one most likely gets swept away by it.

Economic gerrymandering:

Gerrymander is a portmanteau of Gerry and salamander and was created to describe the creation of a Boston partisan district in the form of a salamander, with the intention to change the outcome of the elections. The person instigating the bill was Elbridge Gerry, then governor of Massachusetts. The connotation of the term is generally negative as it implies one would like to amend the natural outcome of something (generally an election). In the case of Champagne, it is the perception of the economy, expressed in volume (eg. champagne bottle sales), that the official instances would like to change.

Comité Champagne (CIVC) data shows that volume sales peaked at 338.8 million bottles in 2007, just before the 2008 financial crisis, and despite a growing sparkling wine demand, champagne sales have never rebounded. Rather, they have shown a steady decline, that accelerated in the last two years, resulting in 2024 coming in at only 271.3 million bottles sold. To put this in context, this is just above the 1997 sales (269 million bottles), which was probably the last year before the millennial sales fluctuations between 1998 and 2002. From 2004 sales, sales remained above the 300 million bottle mark with the exception of 2009, when the appellation suffered the aftermath of the financial crisis. This is why, in my opinion, when the 2019 sales fell below the “psychological” 300 million bottle mark (they came in at 297.3 million bottles), alarm bells should have rung loudly because there was no other reason for this drop than increased competition and a declining interest in champagne.

However, somehow, Covid-19 projected the Champenois leadership into a parallel universe, heralding in 2022 that the appellation was entering a new golden age. At a February 2022 zoom press conference, both Maxime Toubart, president of the Syndicat Général des Vignerons (SGV), and Jean-Marie Barillère, then president of the Union des Maisons de Champgne (UMC), proclaimed that the appellation had found a new market equilibrium at 325 million bottles, hence totally ignoring the market had been seriously impacted by the Covid crisis. In fact, if they had averaged sales of 2020 (244.1) and 2021 (320.7), they would have known that the 282.4 million bottles remained well below the 2019 sales. Adding the 325.5 million bottles of 2022 and recalculating the three-year average gives a result on par with the 2019 sales (297.4 million bottles).

Even though sales had begun their steady decline by the end of 2022, both Maxime Toubart and David Chatillon, current president of the UMC, upheld the 325 million bottle myth in their press communications. As sales continued to fall, Chatillon toned down the new ‘average’ sales number to 313 to 314 million bottles in July 2023, only to make another grand statement at the end of the year (together with Toubart this time) proclaiming Champagne congratulated itself to have returned to its pre-Covid sales figure (299 million bottles were sold in 2023). This year, as sales volume continued their downward spiral, Toubart was quick to point the finger at a selection of external factors in his press release comment: “Champagne is a true barometer of consumer mood. And this is no time for celebration, with inflation, conflicts around the world, economic uncertainty and a political wait-and-see attitude in some of Champagne's biggest markets, such as France and the United States of America”. Once again, this statement is flawed seeing inflation eased in 2024, both in the US and France. Moreover, both the Ukraine and Israeli wars had started well before 2024, France hosted the Olympics last summer and Trump was set to make America great again, winning the election on the promise of a stronger economy.

Not once, in the last 5 years, did either co-president acknowledge that other sparkling wine appellations were setting record sales while champagne sales continued to stagnate at best. For instance, Prosecco sales have gone from strength to strength even growing by 2.8% in the 2020 Covid year and increasing by 7% in 2024 to reach 660 million bottles. Cava sales soared to 252 million bottles in 2023, but the 2024 figures will likely come in below that due to stock shortages attributed to severe droughts the last few years in Penedes. In fact, the appellation had to implement sales restrictions to its largest markets, which in turn has driven up pricing. Cremant sales also continue to increase; Vitisphere reported a 19% increase between 2019 and 2024 (108 million bottles) and a 5% year on year increase for the first half of 2024 in French supermarkets. While volumes remain small, sales of English sparkling wine have just bout tripled since 2018 (from 2.2 million bottles to 6.2 million bottles).

All of this shows that rather than forgo celebrations, consumers may have switched out champagne for other sparkling wines, and these days, qualitative alternatives are plentiful, especially when compared to a decade ago. It may pay to point out that ignoring the competition, or more importantly, ignoring why consumers decide to “switch over’, is what led to Bordeaux’s phenomenal decline at the end of last century, at a time that wine sales soared. Similarly, champagne sales have been declining despite the sparkling wine sales boom of the last 15 years. Therefore, instead of continuously repeating that champagne outshines all other sparkling wines because they produce “wines of excellence”, the time may have come to question and test this so-called superior quality. It is not because one believes one is superior, that that really is the case. One should not forget that the Titanic sank because it was so sure it was unsinkable. Hence, I would urge the appellation leaders to invest in quality as from today and focus a little less on the quantity – for now there really is plenty of stock resting in the cellars.